You will need to justify the relevance of such data. Allow for a, b, c.
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Historical data, but assumptions need to reflect expected future experience, relevance of past data to future projections must also be balanced against the need for sufficient data for its analysis to be statistically credible.
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More significant emphasis on more recent data to allow for the trend
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Standard tables industrial data (CMI)
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Reinsurance data
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Medical profession data (Because the morality data is significantly affected by medical advancements, it will be necessary to consider the views of doctors and other healthcare professionals to understand the range of views about future medical advancements when determining the range of potential future changes.)
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Other industry/national statistics, but the relevance becomes weaker
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Own contracts’ experience
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Actuarial consultancy
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Past trend for assets, allow for future economy outlook
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Future tax rate: use any available government economic forecasts
In using the past data to project future mortality, the actuary needs to deal with
- abnormal fluctuations
- changes of the experience with time
- random fluctuations
- changes in the way in which the data was recorded
- potential errors in the data
- changes in the balance of any homogeneous groups underlying the data
- heterogeneity with the group to which the assumptions are to relate
- effects of economic changes
- effects of healthcare and lifestyle changes