(1) Taxation
Tax will often be payable on profits and/or investment income and gains. In addition, tax relief may apply to expenses incurred.
formula-based: use investment return net of tax – but, difficult if tax is based on profit achieved (rather than on investment returns)
DCF: can have an explicit cash outflow for tax liability (based on investment return or overall profit, as required)
Thus, the company is exposed to the risk of future changes in the taxation basis
(2) Cost of capital
return required by providers of capital (e.g. shareholders – should reflect risks involved, lenders – should reflect interest rate paid on capital borrowed).
DCF: this can be reflected in the risk discount rate used.
formula-based: more difficult to allow for this, as there is no specific component reflecting the cost of capital. in practice, this would be allowed for in the required profit margin (e.g. higher risk → higher cost of capital → higher profit margin).
(3) Margins for adverse future experience
formula-based: With a formula-based approach, these will typically be allowed for by using prudent valuation assumptions. But, this is subjective and the combined effect of the margins can be difficult to determine.
DCF: could also project cash flows using prudent assumptions. but, better to project cash flows using “best estimate” and discount profit signature at a higher rate of interest (to allow for risks).
(4) Cost of options and guarantees
formula-based: It is difficult to allow accurately for the expected cost of many options and guarantees.
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Convertible/renewable option: project cash flows in and out assuming that option is exercised at maturity (assumptions may reflect experience of those lives likely to exercise option). difference between outgo and income gives expected cost of option at maturity. multiply by probability of exercising option and discount to start of initial contract to give expected cost at outset.
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Guarantee on market rates: difficult. because, depending on future interest rates assumption, guarantee will either apply with probability 1 or will not apply.
DCF stochastic model: the additional cash flow arising from the option or guarantee under a range of ‘possible future scenarios can be assessed. Then, the expected cost (and, hence, present value) of the option or guarantee can be calculated (and included in the calculation).
(5) Valuation basis used for statutory reserves
The basis used to calculate the statutory reserve is likely to be more prudent than the premium basis. because aim is to demonstrate ability to pay promised benefits as they fall due.
As the return expected from investing the statutory reserve is likely to be lower than the cost of capital (or the shareholders required return), the PV of these future profits will be reduced. Thus, it may be appropriate to charge a slightly higher premium.
(6) Experience-rating to adjust premiums
Experience-rating systems are often used in non-life insurance business such as motor and household contents insurance
The basic principle involved is that premiums are set separately for different classes of policyholders on the basis of their previous claims experience.
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main advantages: better reflects risk of each individual policy, can also encourage policyholders to take less risk (and, thus, reduce total claims costs).
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main disadvantages: more complicated (and, hence, costly) to administer, may be unfair if claim was not policyholder’s fault, disputes
Protected NCD schemes allow the policyholder to make a claim without necessarily reducing the level of discount applied.
In life insurance, there is no experience rating, as a claim is only made once